AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will there be a Deepseek V4-lite?

92.87%

Market YES

7%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 85.87% -7 pts

50/100

High probability for a Deepseek V4-lite release based on current market sentiment.

Will Anthropic Claude remain in the top 10 free apps on Apple App Store for 7+ consecutive days in March 2026?

89.78%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72% -7 pts

50/100

High probability suggests confidence in Claude's app performance in March 2026.

Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?

63.18%

Market YES

37%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 56.18% -7 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Anthropic cover costs of electricity price increases from its data centers before 2028?

61.53%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.53% -7 pts

45/100

Market shows a slight favor for Anthropic covering electricity costs by 2028.

Will ChatGPT be the top free app in the Apple app store on March 31, 2026? (US)

69%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64% -7 pts

50/100

There's a 71% chance ChatGPT will be the top free app by March 31, 2026.

Will Epoch AI accept Archivara's proposed solution to this FrontierMath Open Problem?

78.75%

Market YES

21%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60% -7 pts

50/100

Epoch AI has a 67% chance of accepting Archivara's solution to the problem.

Humanoid Robot Finishes a Half Marathon Under 2 Hours by 2030

74.73%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 67.73% -7 pts

40/100

High probability for a humanoid robot to finish a half marathon under 2 hours by 2030.

Will the OpenAI GPT Store (or equivalent “AI App Store”) launch before August 1, 2026?

85%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78% -7 pts

55/100

High probability for the GPT Store launch before August 2026.

will i qualify for the IPO 2026 team?

62%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55% -7 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?

97.83%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.83% -7 pts

55/100

High probability of non-SpaceX reusable rockets by 2027.

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of March?

89%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 86.45% -7 pts

50/100

Market predicts a high likelihood of Apple closing above $220 by end of March.

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

89.91%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.91% -7 pts

45/100

High likelihood of a community forming around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028.

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?

91.12%

Market YES

9%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.66% -7 pts

55/100

High probability of Claude 5 Opus release before October 2026.

Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?

87%

Market YES

13%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 80% -7 pts

45/100

High probability suggests confidence in OpenAI topping the leaderboard again before 2030.

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

62.22%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.22% -7 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2027 be composed by AI?

69%

Market YES

31%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 62% -7 pts

55/100

There's a 69% chance an AI-composed song will hit the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027.

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

67.46%

Market YES

33%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.46% -7 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will there be polling about AI voting advice in 2026 midterms?

71.32%

Market YES

29%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 64.32% -7 pts

50/100

There is a 71.32% chance of polling on AI voting advice in the 2026 midterms.

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

78%

Market YES

22%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71% -7 pts

45/100

High probability for a robot passing Wozniak's test by 2030.

Will @LivGorton end up at Anthropic by end of 2026?

78%

Market YES

22%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 71% -7 pts

55/100

High probability suggests strong sentiment for Liv Gorton joining Anthropic by 2026.

In exactly two years, will two shares of Applied Micro Devices (AMD) be worth more than one share of Microsoft (MSFT)?

61.14%

Market YES

39%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.14% -7 pts

40/100

Market leans towards AMD outperforming MSFT in two years.

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

62%

Market YES

38%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55% -7 pts

55/100

There is a 62% chance that major copyright reforms for AI works will be enacted by 2026.

OpenAI beats Grok on arena.ai before June?

83.04%

Market YES

17%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 62.59% -7 pts

50/100

Market favors OpenAI to outperform Grok on arena.ai before June.

Will MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company

70%

Market YES

30%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63% -7 pts

50/100

MalgoTechnologies has a 70% chance of being a top AI development company.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets