💰 Business & Finance Markets

AT Protocol has more MAU than ActivityPub Fediverse by 2030?

71.87%

Market YES

28%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.87% -8 pts

40/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

any U.S. federal official visit Venezuela before June 1, 2026?

70.91%

Market YES

29%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 62.91% -8 pts

50/100

Market indicates a high probability of a U.S. official visiting Venezuela before June 2026.

Will Tumbles understand why raising interest rates lowers inflation? (before 2027)

75.7%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 67.7% -8 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the Japanese yen trade below 160 JPY/USD at the end of March 2026?

89.66%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81% -8 pts

50/100

High probability for yen trading below 160 JPY/USD by March 2026.

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?

72.6%

Market YES

27%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 77.35% -8 pts

45/100

High probability of Fed hiking rates before 2028, with market leaning towards a YES.

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?

77%

Market YES

23%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69% -8 pts

45/100

Market indicates a strong belief in 6% US GDP growth before 2040.

Will the CPI-U show higher inflation over the course of 2026 than over 2025?

71.34%

Market YES

29%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.34% -8 pts

50/100

Market predicts higher inflation in 2026 compared to 2025 with a 71.34% probability.

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

90.36%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 84.36% -6 pts

45/100

Market favors LLMs over GLP-1 agents for economic impact by 2030.

Will Javier Milei get inflation below 30% by the end of his term?

85.49%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 79.49% -6 pts

45/100

Market strongly favors Javier Milei achieving inflation below 30%.

Yuta Stock

95.42%

Market YES

5%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 89.24% -6 pts

35/100

Yuta Stock has a high probability of a positive outcome based on current market sentiment.

Will the UK face the "longest recession in G7"?

82.37%

Market YES

18%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.37% -6 pts

55/100

Market strongly predicts the UK will have the longest recession in G7.

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?

86.07%

Market YES

14%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 80.07% -6 pts

55/100

High probability for an injunction against the Liberation Day tariffs.

Line stock [permanent]

79%

Market YES

21%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73% -6 pts

45/100

The market favors a YES outcome for Line stock at 79% probability.

Will the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement be applied in 2026, even if provisionally?

91.72%

Market YES

8%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.89% -6 pts

55/100

High probability for EU-Mercosur Agreement application in 2026.

Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

84.97%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $13K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.31% -6 pts

65/100

Market predicts high likelihood of inflation exceeding 3% before unemployment drops below 4%.

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

76.48%

Market YES

24%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.48% -6 pts

50/100

Market favors inflation reaching 6% before hitting 0%, with a strong probability of 76.48%.

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

98%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $276K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.62% -6 pts

45/100

The market strongly favors the Milky Way's existence in 2030.

Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?

96.27%

Market YES

4%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.27% -6 pts

60/100

High probability indicates strong market belief in rate cuts before reaching negative 4%.

Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2040?

94.16%

Market YES

6%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 88.16% -6 pts

45/100

High probability that semaglutide will cost under $100/month in 2040 without insurance.

Will I resolve this market to yes within 12 hours of it reaching 10 traders?

96.32%

Market YES

4%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.32% -6 pts

55/100

High probability of resolution within 12 hours after reaching 10 traders.

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

98.41%

Market YES

2%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $64K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 92.79% -6 pts

60/100

High probability that the fed funds rate will be below 4% by end of 2026.

Will Maxx Crosby get traded from the Las Vegas Raiders before March 10th?

89%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 83% -6 pts

65/100

High probability suggests Maxx Crosby is likely to be traded before March 10th.

Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026

81.76%

Market YES

18%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.76% -6 pts

55/100

High probability for US GDP growth under 3.5% in 2026.

Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?

32.33%

Market YES

68%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.97% +5.5 pts

55/100

Market indicates a low probability of the US entering a recession by 2026.