Markets / Science & Health

🔬 Science & Health Markets

160 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will Tetraspace have a car in the next ten years?
40.86%
Market YES
59%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 46.36% +5.5 pts
40/100
Market shows mixed views on Tetraspace having a car in ten years.
Will "It Is Reasonable To Research How To Use Model..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
10.3%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15.8% +5.5 pts
40/100
Low probability for the post to make the top fifty in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review.
Will the construction of the space hotel Voyager Station begin in 2026?
6.27%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.77% +5.5 pts
50/100
The likelihood of Voyager Station's construction starting in 2026 is low.
Will Elon Musk be in the space before 2030?
12.73%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.23% +5.5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards Elon Musk not being in space before 2030.
Will "Safety researchers should take a public stance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
26.03%
Market YES
74%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.53% +5.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Lubbock get top 16 at Science Bowl Nationals 2026?
33.11%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.61% +5.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Free Lottery (polio virus)
30.29%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.79% +5.5 pts
55/100
The market shows a higher likelihood of NO regarding the polio virus lottery.
Will major health bodies recommend limiting linoleic acid intake before 2050?
16.62%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.12% +5.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Anysphere/Cursor make a play into the repository hosting space in 2026?
17.62%
Market YES
82%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.12% +5.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability for Anysphere/Cursor entering repository hosting in 2026.
Will there be an asteroid named after Tetraspace by 2034?
12.58%
Market YES
87%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 18.08% +5.5 pts
45/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will I get into Simons Summer Research Program 2026?
35.07%
Market YES
65%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 40.57% +5.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of acceptance into the program.
Free Lottery (virus in biosphere)
31.32%
Market YES
69%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.82% +5.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
45%
Market YES
55%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.5% +5.5 pts
40/100
The market shows a close split on classifying 'Last Generation' as a criminal organization.
Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?
24%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.5% +5.5 pts
45/100
The market leans towards no deaths occurring by 2027.
US Space Force combat casualty during 2026?
5.98%
Market YES
94%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.48% +5.5 pts
50/100
Low probability of US Space Force combat casualties in 2026 according to market data.
Will a single infectious disease cause 200,000+ U.S. hospitalizations by April 15, 2026?
39.35%
Market YES
61%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 45.5% +5.5 pts
55/100
Market shows a 40% chance of 200,000+ U.S. hospitalizations by April 2026.
Will tetra'space be deleted or inaccessible in a month?
22.35%
Market YES
78%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 34.5% +5.5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a higher likelihood of tetra'space remaining accessible.
If Tetraspace tries a 70 lb chest fly in the next week, will she be able to?
33%
Market YES
67%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 38.5% +5.5 pts
50/100
Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Tetraspace get through a whole meditation without being anxious about time by end of April 1st 2026?
46.56%
Market YES
53%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.06% +5.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
If Tetraspace reopens tetra'space under Guest Norms will she have a bad time regarding it in the next month?
47.68%
Market YES
52%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.5% +5.5 pts
50/100
Market sentiment is divided on Tetraspace reopening under Guest Norms.
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
15.4%
Market YES
85%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 20.9% +5.5 pts
55/100
The market shows a low probability for FDA approval of an HIV vaccine by 2027.
Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?
57%
Market YES
43%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 52.5% -4.5 pts
45/100
Market shows a slight favor for Space Force operating a crewed spacecraft by 2040.
Will Tetraspace bite her nails on 2026-03-27?
59.02%
Market YES
41%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 54.52% -4.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
Will Tetraspace bite her nails on 2026-03-26?
54.75%
Market YES
45%
Market NO
Manifold
⚡ Pulse Score
~ AI: 50.25% -4.5 pts
55/100
Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.
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