Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026

Market shows a slight lean towards a US strike on Kharg Island oil infrastructure.

The prediction market indicates a 56.3% probability for a US attempt to strike Kharg Island's oil infrastructure before April 15, 2026, suggesting a cautious expectation of military action. The Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 51.3%, reflecting uncertainty in the data. With a confidence level of 55 out of 100 and an edge of -5, the market is deemed too close for a definitive assessment.

• 1 Current market probability favors a US strike slightly over no action.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a narrow margin of uncertainty.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate reliability in current predictions.
• 4 Market edge of -5 highlights insufficient data for strong conclusions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market movements.