Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

The market indicates a low probability for AfD winning the most seats in Berlin's 2026 elections.

Currently, the market assigns a 10.10% probability to the AfD winning the most seats in the upcoming Berlin state elections, with a stronger consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 14.6%, indicating some uncertainty in the market's assessment. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors other parties over AfD.
• 2 The AfD's historical performance in Berlin may influence future outcomes.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting moderate interest.
• 4 Time until the election provides room for potential shifts in voter behavior.
• 5 The confidence level suggests some uncertainty in the predictions.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)