Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

The Alba Party is unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the Alba Party will not secure the most seats, with a 97.15% likelihood of a NO outcome. The AI model also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. This suggests a consensus that the Alba Party faces significant challenges in the upcoming election.

• 1 Market shows strong skepticism about Alba Party's chances.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly more optimistic view than the market.
• 3 Current confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 4 Time until election allows for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 4.5.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).