Will Alexandre Dupalais win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

Alexandre Dupalais has a very low chance of winning the 2026 Lyon mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.15% probability of Alexandre Dupalais winning, suggesting strong skepticism about his candidacy. In contrast, the Pulse AI gives him a slightly higher chance at 4.65%, but both values reflect a consensus that he is unlikely to succeed. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable but not favorable for Dupalais.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Dupalais.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Dupalais's chances are viewed as minimal by both market and AI predictions.
• 4 The confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time remaining until the election could influence future market adjustments.

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).