Will Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

Low market probability for Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi to win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.15% probability of Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi winning the 2026 Lyon mayoral election, suggesting strong skepticism about her candidacy. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with the market, further supporting the notion that her chances are perceived as minimal. The confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment against Belouassa-Cherifi's candidacy.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher, but still low, chance of victory.
• 3 Current market pricing indicates a fair valuation of her chances.
• 4 Confidence level reflects moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time until the election could allow for shifts in political dynamics.

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).