Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Low market probability suggests Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior is unlikely to finish second.

The market probability for Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finishing second in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election stands at 10.30%, indicating a strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 14.8%, but both figures suggest limited confidence in his chances. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 4778 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Political dynamics could change leading up to the election.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).