Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Eduardo Bolsonaro is unlikely to finish second in the 2026 election, per market data.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Eduardo Bolsonaro finishing in second place, with a 99.85% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, although with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 4.65%, indicating some uncertainty in the market.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a minor chance for 'YES' at 4.65%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 4777 hours, allowing for potential changes.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).