Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Market indicates low likelihood of Haddad finishing second in the 2026 election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Fernando Haddad finishing in second place, with a 96.75% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 7.75%. This suggests a general skepticism about Haddad's chances in the upcoming election.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Haddad's second-place finish.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong belief in alternative candidates' competitiveness.
• 3 Market pricing suggests a balanced view, with only a slight edge for the 'NO' position.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts as the election date approaches.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).