Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Gavin Newsom's chances for the 2028 Democratic nomination are currently low.

The market indicates a 24.25% probability of Gavin Newsom winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with a stronger consensus against it at 75.75%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a lack of strong support for his candidacy at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Newsom.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 The edge of -1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 80/100, indicating stable sentiment.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.