Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Market suggests Bolsonaro is unlikely to finish second in the 2026 election.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Jair Bolsonaro will not secure second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with a market probability of 99.1% for 'NO.' This contrasts with the Pulse AI probability of 5.4% for 'YES,' suggesting a significant divergence in expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Bolsonaro not finishing second.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 4.5.
• 3 Confidence in this prediction is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 4777 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 The divergence between market and AI probabilities indicates uncertainty.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).