Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Linke is unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin elections.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Linke winning the most seats, with an 84% probability for NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of success for Linke in the upcoming elections.

• 1 Market probability indicates a strong NO sentiment at 84%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 20.5%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 implies the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 4256 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)