Lula is unlikely to finish second in the 2026 election, per current market odds.
The prediction market indicates a low probability of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishing in second place, with a market probability of 14.5% for 'YES' and 85.5% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting an 81% chance of 'NO'. This indicates a consensus that Lula may not be a strong contender for the second position in the upcoming election.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).