Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Low market probability suggests Michelle Bolsonaro is unlikely to finish second.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Michelle Bolsonaro finishing in second place, with a 99.85% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, indicating that current sentiment heavily favors other candidates. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests some uncertainty, but overall, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the AI's estimate.
• 3 Market pricing indicates a strong belief in other candidates' chances.
• 4 The confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time until the election may influence future market adjustments.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).