Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

The market strongly favors that PVP will not win the most seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a very low likelihood of PVP winning the most seats in the upcoming election, with a consensus of 99.95% for NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 4.55%, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance for YES at 4.55%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 371 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Slovenian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (dvk-rs.si/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with