Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Market strongly favors Ronaldo Caiado not finishing second in the election.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.3%) that Ronaldo Caiado will not finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. In contrast, the Pulse AI suggests a much lower probability (5.2%) for him finishing second, reflecting a significant divergence in expectations. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Caiado's second-place finish.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing analyses of Caiado's chances.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the market's pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).