Will Scottish Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Scottish Conservatives are unlikely to win the most seats in 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the Scottish Conservatives winning the most seats, with a 99.25% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of success for the party in the upcoming election.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.25%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 5.25%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 1249 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).