Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Scottish Labour is unlikely to win the most seats in 2026, with low market confidence.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Scottish Labour winning the most seats, with a probability of only 0.20%. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 4.7% chance to their victory. Given the current probabilities and market confidence, the outlook for Scottish Labour appears unfavorable.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Scottish Labour's historical performance may influence current perceptions.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent betting patterns.
• 4 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).