Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

SPD has a low probability of winning the most seats in the 2026 Berlin elections.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against SPD winning the most seats, with a 90.95% probability for 'NO'. The AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for SPD at 13.55%, indicating some uncertainty in the market's pricing.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for SPD winning the most seats.
• 2 The market probability indicates a strong belief in SPD's limited electoral success.
• 3 AI probability suggests a slight divergence, hinting at potential market overreaction.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced with moderate confidence.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in political dynamics.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)