Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Market indicates low probability of Tarcisio de Freitas finishing second in the election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Tarcisio de Freitas finishing in second place, with a 99.7% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, with a significantly higher probability for 'NO' at 95.2%. This suggests that current market sentiment is firmly against his chances in the upcoming election.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Tarcisio finishing second.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 An edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced at this time.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).