The Green Party is unlikely to win the most seats in Sweden's 2026 election.
Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the Green Party will not secure the most seats in the upcoming election, with a NO probability of 98.4%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher confidence in the Green Party's chances at 6.1%. This suggests a consensus that the party faces significant challenges in the political landscape leading up to the election.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).