Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

The market indicates a low probability of the Iranian regime falling by April 30.

Current market probabilities show a strong belief that the Iranian regime will remain in power, with a 93.5% chance of survival. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for regime change at 9.5%. The market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting limited room for significant shifts in sentiment at this time.

• 1 Market probability for regime change is low at 6.50%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance at 9.5%.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 95/100, indicating strong market stability.
• 4 The time to expiry is 742 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects a consensus on regime stability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will no