Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

The market indicates a low probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30.

With a market probability of 16.50% for a regime change in Iran, the consensus leans heavily towards stability. The Pulse AI probability slightly increases this expectation to 19.5%, suggesting a marginally higher chance but still indicating strong confidence in the regime's continuity.

• 1 Current market sentiment shows strong belief in regime stability.
• 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities indicates slight optimism from AI models.
• 3 Historical context suggests regimes in similar situations often endure despite challenges.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent interest in the market.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments to influence the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not