Will the Liberals (L) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

The market strongly favors the Liberals not winning the most seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of the Liberals winning the most seats in the upcoming election, with a consensus of 99.7% against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a significant gap between the two outcomes. Given the confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced at this time.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance for a YES outcome at 4.8%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in political dynamics.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).