Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

The market indicates a low probability of US confirmation of alien existence before 2027.

With a market probability of 16.5% for a YES outcome, the consensus leans heavily towards NO at 83.5%. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors YES at 19.5%, suggesting a minor divergence in expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests slight optimism in AI predictions.
• 3 High confidence level indicates stability in current market pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in public discourse or evidence.
• 5 Historical skepticism about government transparency may influence market behavior.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.