Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

The market strongly predicts no change in Fed interest rates after March 2026.

With a market probability of 100% for no change in interest rates, confidence in this outcome is high. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a probability of 98.5%, indicating a strong consensus among participants.

• 1 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of no rate changes.
• 2 Key factors include stable economic indicators and inflation rates.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest consistency in Fed policy during similar periods.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient to support current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, but the consensus is strong for the March 2026 meeting.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no stat