Will Vanessa Pedinotti be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

Vanessa Pedinotti is highly unlikely to become the next mayor of Toulouse.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% probability of Vanessa Pedinotti winning the 2026 Toulouse mayoral election, suggesting a strong consensus against her candidacy. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, further reinforcing the low likelihood of her success. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Pedinotti's candidacy.
• 2 The market probability is significantly lower than the AI probability.
• 3 A high edge of 4.5 indicates the market is likely accurately priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding an element of unpredictability.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.

If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.