Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.69% -11 pts

There is a 62.69% chance Gaza will be in the news in 2026 according to current trends.

Will Turkey remain a member of NATO by 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72.09% -11 pts

Turkey is likely to remain in NATO by 2030, with high market confidence.

Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.95% -11 pts

Market leans towards India building a military base in the southwest Indian Ocean by 2026.

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 10 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.49% -11 pts

Market shows mixed views on crude oil supply impact from potential Persian Gulf conflict.

Will Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.64% -11 pts

Market leans towards Israel being rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028.

will Niger directly sell nuclear material to France in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.73% -11 pts

Market shows a higher probability for Niger selling nuclear material to France in 2026.

Will gas prices continue to get higher because of the war

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.87% -11 pts

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Should the world ban nuclear weapons?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.02% -11 pts

The market shows a slight preference for banning nuclear weapons, but opinions are closely divided.

Will there be a 'The Streamer Awards' in 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81.81% -11 pts

High probability for 'The Streamer Awards' in 2026 suggests strong market confidence.

Will another Iranian official be killed

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.36% -11 pts

High probability of another Iranian official being killed according to market data.

Will Pete Hegseth be the Secretary of War on 12/31/2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44% -11 pts

Market suggests a slight chance Pete Hegseth could be Secretary of War by 2026.

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2025 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2026)

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.91% -11 pts

High probability that the 2025 Oscars Best Picture will pass the Bechdel Test.

Will the official Farcaster client (formerly Warpcast) permanently cease as a social media platform by Dec 31, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 39.75% -11 pts

Market shows a near-even split on the future of Farcaster by 2026.

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.62% -11 pts

High probability for exceeding 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027.

Will any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63% -11 pts

There is a 74% chance that a non-USA country will ease Russian oil sanctions.

Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.95% -11 pts

Market favors China landing humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts.

Will the United States lose the war against Iran?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.92% -11 pts

Market leans towards the U.S. losing the war against Iran, but confidence is low.

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.75% -11 pts

High probability for a machine learning run exceeding 10^26 FLOP in China by 2027.

Forever Market for Daily Rewards

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 39.08% -11 pts

Market shows a slight preference for a NO outcome in geopolitics.

Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on May 1, 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.89% -11 pts

High probability suggests China will maintain gallium export restrictions on Japan by May 2026.

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2026?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68% -11 pts

Market predicts a high likelihood that Warren Buffett will be alive at the end of 2026.

Will "One Battle After Another" win at least 6 awards at the 2026 oscars?

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.98% -11 pts

High probability for 'One Battle After Another' to win at least 6 Oscars.

DLA awards tungsten stockpile purchase contract by Jun 30, 2026 following 2025 RFI?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.33% -11 pts

Market shows a slight favor for DLA awarding the tungsten contract by June 2026.

Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.81% -11 pts

Market shows a higher probability for a second Asian language novel winning a Hugo by 2030.

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