Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

High probability for a machine learning run exceeding 10^26 FLOP in China by 2027.

The market shows a strong inclination towards a YES outcome, with a probability of 74.75%. This suggests significant confidence in China's capabilities to achieve this level of machine learning performance before the deadline, despite a lower AI probability of 63.75% indicating some uncertainty in the prediction models.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome at 74.75%.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability suggests a moderate level of uncertainty at 63.75%.
• 3 An edge of -11 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
• 4 Confidence level is at 55/100, reflecting mixed opinions among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 6902 hours, allowing for potential developments.