Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

High probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz by March 31.

The market shows a strong consensus that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, with a probability of 99.95%. However, the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 93.95%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainty or differing interpretations of geopolitical dynamics.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 2 The AI model indicates a lower probability than the market, suggesting potential mispricing.
• 3 High confidence level of 95/100 reflects strong market conviction.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.
• 5 The NO side appears undervalued, indicating possible opportunities for market correction.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.