Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

The market strongly favors no ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.85% likelihood of no ceasefire by the specified date, suggesting a prevailing sentiment of ongoing conflict. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, albeit with slightly higher uncertainty. The edge of 0.85 indicates that the market is likely priced accurately based on available information.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly against a ceasefire by March 31, 2026.
• 2 The probability of a ceasefire is significantly lower than the AI's estimate.
• 3 Current geopolitical conditions suggest prolonged conflict is likely.
• 4 Low liquidity may affect the market's responsiveness to new information.
• 5 High confidence level indicates strong consensus among market participants.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.