Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

High likelihood of a major Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31.

The market indicates a 99.95% probability of Israel launching a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, suggesting overwhelming sentiment in favor of this outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a 95.45% probability, indicating strong consensus among participants. The edge of -4.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a ground offensive.
• 2 The high probabilities reflect a strong belief in imminent military action.
• 3 Historical context may influence perceptions of Israel's military decisions.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is uncertain, which may impact future sentiment shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.