US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Market indicates no expectation of US forces entering Iran by March 14.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of US military action in Iran by the specified date. With a market probability of 0% for a US entry, and a high confidence level, the sentiment reflects a stable geopolitical environment regarding this issue.

• 1 Current market sentiment is firmly against US intervention in Iran.
• 2 The probability of intervention is perceived as extremely low by market participants.
• 3 Historical context suggests low likelihood of rapid military actions without clear provocation.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant confidence.
• 5 The timeframe for potential changes in sentiment remains uncertain.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.