|
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
90.5% |
81.5% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will I still be using Claude Code by the end of March 2026
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
93.85% |
88.36% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
90% |
85% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will ChatGPT have ads before the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
98.25% |
93.13% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
85.24% |
80.24% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
99.95% |
64.8% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
94.82% |
89.82% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
86.73% |
75.55% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will an AI model solve a FrontierMath Open Problem before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
90.82% |
79.39% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
60.04% |
62.21% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
75.37% |
73.9% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
83.01% |
73.4% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Chat GPT 6 release before the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
70% |
65% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
62.5% |
57.5% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
94.11% |
89.11% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
92.62% |
86.42% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
84.57% |
82.75% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
65% |
60% |
-5 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
98.3% |
92.1% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will mHC be used in DeepSeek V4?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76.17% |
71.03% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Tesla dip to $375 in March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
55% |
58.5% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Gemini 4 released in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
77.94% |
73.21% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, an…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
71.46% |
66.46% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will OpenAI retire the Sora app in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
99.06% |
92.62% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|