|
Will The MongolZ qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
38% |
52% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
95.78% |
90.78% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
65% |
62.49% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Andrej Karpathy and Elon back working together by mid 2028
Manifold
Crypto
|
25.78% |
30.78% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
58.16% |
55.8% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
85.51% |
80.51% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
us nukes Iran in 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
4.86% |
9.75% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.1% |
16.01% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
63.93% |
58.56% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.32% |
35.48% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Bitcoin $80K in March?
Manifold
Crypto
|
1% |
21% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
86.75% |
88.65% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new agreement by March 20, …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
2.59% |
11.25% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will "Ordinary" by Alex Warren be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March 21…
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0.25% |
6.05% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palest…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
10% |
15% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.39% |
31.39% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% |
14.5% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
AI will not cause any catastrophes in 2026
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
89.87% |
84.87% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
10.06% |
15% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Sta…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76.83% |
71.83% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.79% |
17% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Bitcoin below $52K before March 31, 2026?
Manifold
Crypto
|
1% |
9.97% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?
Polymarket
Crypto
|
100% |
39% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.7% |
11.99% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|