Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Market leans towards traffic not returning to normal by April 30.

The prediction market indicates a higher likelihood that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal by April 30, with a 56.5% probability for 'NO.' Both the market and Pulse AI show similar probabilities, suggesting a consensus on the current outlook.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Geopolitical factors are significant in determining traffic patterns.
• 3 Historical trends show volatility in the region can disrupt shipping.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting balanced betting activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 1185 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be con