Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

Market indicates a high probability of inflation rising by ≥2.8% in March.

The prediction market shows a 73% probability for inflation to increase by at least 2.8% in March, which aligns closely with the Pulse AI's estimate of 68.5%. The edge of -4.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans strongly towards inflation rising.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI is relatively small.
• 3 The confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential data shifts.
• 5 Market pricing suggests no major misalignment in expectations.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to t