Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

High probability of Iran announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by July 2026.

The market indicates an 83.59% probability that Iran will officially announce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for over 48 hours by July 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 74.59%, suggesting strong sentiment towards the likelihood of such an event occurring. However, the NO side appears undervalued, indicating potential market mispricing.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a blockade announcement.
• 2 The probability gap suggests potential undervaluation of the NO side.
• 3 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry of 2587 hours allows for significant geopolitical developments.
• 5 Historical context may influence perceptions of Iran's strategic decisions.