Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

High probability for an Israeli strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief in the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Yemen, with a 92.5% probability. This aligns with the Pulse AI's assessment of 85%, suggesting a consensus on the geopolitical tensions involved. However, the NO side appears to be undervalued, indicating potential for shifts in sentiment or new information.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests potential undervaluation of the NO side.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Geopolitical dynamics in the region are key factors influencing predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.