Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Low probability for a China-Taiwan invasion by 2026, with market favoring peace.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, with a 90.15% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for both outcomes, suggesting a consensus on stability in the region.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a peaceful resolution.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a well-balanced view on potential conflict.
• 3 Historical data shows low rates of military action in similar contexts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for significant developments that could influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.