Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?

High probability that Iran will name a successor to Khamenei by March 10.

The market indicates a strong belief, with a 99.95% probability, that Iran will announce a successor to Khamenei by the specified date. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly lower confidence at 93.95%, indicating some uncertainty. The edge of -6 points for the NO side implies that it may be undervalued in this context.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a successor announcement.
• 2 Pulse AI reflects a more cautious outlook compared to market probability.
• 3 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 6 points.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with only 516 hours until expiry.
• 5 Political dynamics in Iran could influence the final decision.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.