Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?

High probability that Iran will name a successor to Khamenei by March 11.

The market shows a strong consensus with a 99.95% probability for a YES outcome regarding Iran naming a successor to Khamenei by the deadline. However, the Pulse AI indicates a slightly lower probability of 93.95%, suggesting that the NO side may be undervalued. This discrepancy highlights potential market overconfidence in the YES outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment overwhelmingly favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability indicates a significant gap, suggesting market overconfidence.
• 3 The edge of -6 points implies the NO side may be undervalued.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 509 hours until the expiry.
• 5 Political dynamics in Iran could rapidly influence the succession timeline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.