Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?

High probability that Iran will name a successor to Khamenei by March 12.

The market indicates a strong belief, with a 99.95% probability, that Iran will name a successor to Khamenei before the deadline. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 93.95%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a notable divergence from market probability.
• 3 The NO side is perceived as undervalued, suggesting market caution.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with only 508 hours until expiry.
• 5 Confidence level of 85/100 indicates strong belief in the YES outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.