Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?

High probability of Iran naming a successor to Khamenei by March 13.

The market shows a strong consensus that Iran will name a successor to Khamenei by the deadline, with a probability of 99.95% for 'YES'. However, the Pulse AI probability indicates a slightly lower confidence at 93.95%, suggesting that the 'NO' side may be undervalued by 6 points.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a successor being named.
• 2 The high probability suggests strong confidence in the event occurring.
• 3 The Pulse AI probability indicates a potential undervaluation of the 'NO' side.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with only 503 hours until the deadline.
• 5 Political dynamics in Iran could rapidly influence the outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.