Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

High probability of an Iranian strike on Israel on March 10, but some undervaluation on the NO side.

The market indicates a very high probability of Iran striking Israel on March 10, with a consensus leaning heavily towards a YES outcome. However, the AI probability suggests a lower likelihood, indicating that the NO side may be undervalued by 6 points, reflecting potential uncertainty or differing interpretations of the situation.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming sentiment for a strike.
• 2 AI probability is notably lower, suggesting skepticism in the market.
• 3 The NO side's undervaluation indicates potential for market correction.
• 4 High confidence level reflects strong consensus among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other