Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?

The market predicts a high likelihood of Iran striking Israel on March 2.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike, there is strong consensus on this outcome. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly lower chance at 94%, indicating some skepticism about the certainty of the event. The edge of -6 for the NO side implies it may be undervalued compared to the YES side.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a strike on March 2.
• 2 The significant gap between market and AI probabilities suggests potential overconfidence.
• 3 Historical patterns show fluctuating tensions between Iran and Israel.
• 4 Market liquidity may be affected by external geopolitical developments.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, which could influence decision-making leading up to the date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other