Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?

The market shows a strong expectation of an Iranian strike on Israel on March 3.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike and a Pulse AI probability of 94%, there is a significant consensus on this event occurring. However, the NO side is undervalued by 6 points, indicating potential for market adjustment if new information arises.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a strike on March 3.
• 2 The NO side's undervaluation suggests possible market correction.
• 3 High confidence level of 90 indicates strong belief in the prediction.
• 4 Potential geopolitical developments could alter current probabilities.
• 5 Liquidity may be affected by new information leading up to the date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other