Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?

The market strongly predicts an Iranian strike on Israel on March 9.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike, there is overwhelming sentiment that Iran will take action against Israel on March 9. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly lower likelihood of 94%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side. This discrepancy highlights uncertainty that could be influenced by evolving geopolitical dynamics.

• 1 Market shows extreme confidence in a strike occurring.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a significant chance of no strike, suggesting caution.
• 3 The edge of -6 points implies the NO side may be undervalued.
• 4 High confidence level of 90/100 reflects strong market sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other